For political drama, it’s hard to beat the Canadian election. The Liberal Party, declared dead only months ago, roared to life, erasing a double-digit polling deficit to defeat the Conservatives and retain control of the federal government. A remarkable turnaround, brought about in part by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation and replacement by political neophyte Mark Carney. Then there was Donald Trump, of course. His tariffs and talk of Canada as a 51st state galvanized the Canadian electorate as never before. Sure, the campaign also featured issues important to Canadians: housing and health care mostly. But Trump was a huge factor, with each of the four Prime Minister candidates positioning as best suited to stand up to America’s wannabe dictator.

New Jersey’s Democratic Primary this year is shaping up as a contest similar to the one just held in the Great White North. Like the Liberals, the Democrats are seeking to extend control of the Executive branch for another four years following the eight years of the Murphy Administration. That would be the longest stretch of single party control of our state’s highest office since the second term of Governor Richard Hughes back in the 1960s. And while some issues of concern to New Jerseyans are brewing in the campaign, the number one issue is Donald Trump and what to do about him.

Conventional wisdom suggests this race is the Democrats to lose, as the state has a history of bucking the President’s party when selecting their Governor. But the Democrats can ill afford to take comfort in that history. Still reeling from the aftermath of the November election, the Democrats need this win. With precious few elections of consequence in 2025, a loss here in the Garden State would be taken as a very bad sign. To avoid that fate, New Jersey Democrats need to pick a strong candidate in June, one that ideally will appeal to independent voters, who have been lately showing distressing signs of leaning Republican.

Fortunately for Democrats, they have six solid candidates to choose from. Their number include two members of Congress, Mikie Sherrill and Josh Gottheimer, two big city mayors, Newark’s Ras Baraka and Jersey City’s Steve Fulop, the NJEA President Sean Spiller, and former State Senate President Steve Sweeney. All have strong records of public service, and two, Sherrill and Fulop, are veterans. With the court ordered end to the so-called “county line”, no candidate will enjoy preferential ballot treatment. No clear favorite has emerged thus far, but most polls have shown Sherrill leading, Sweeney bringing up the rear, and the rest jockeying for runner up status. Sherrill is seen by some as the establishment candidate, but notably the two biggest names in the state’s Democratic firmament, Senators Cory Booker and Andy Kim, have declined to state their preference.

Our state’s primaries remain closed; that is, only registered party members may vote. So, the candidates are mostly trying to appeal to the die-hard Democrats who will be voting June 10th. Sure, these voters may want a candidate who champions housing and health care, but they mostly want a warrior who will take on Trump. Democratic activists were outraged by the party leadership’s muted response to Trump in the immediate aftermath of his inauguration, and the Democratic candidates for governor got the message. So, between now and Primary Day, expect that most of the messaging from the candidates will be which of the six is best positioned to take on Trump.

After Primary Day, the nominee will have to turn their attention to those independent voters who will decide the election in November. To win them over, the Democratic nominee will need a message that goes beyond standing up to Trump. Independent voters won’t be looking for continuation of the Murphy Administration either, and you can bet the Republican line of attack will be that voting Democratic is a vote for four more years of the same. So, the trick for the Democrat will be to distinguish themselves from the sitting Governor, negotiate distractions thrown their way by Trump, and focus like a laser on the issues that matter to New Jerseyans.

Many New Jerseyans have found it increasingly difficult to afford to live in our state, and the Democratic nominee must build a campaign focused on reining in those costs. Remember Phil Murphy talking about an “innovation economy”? It’s a nice idea, but it doesn’t really resonate with people who can’t buy a home, can’t afford higher education, and are struggling with grocery and medical bills. When Trump complained about the price of eggs, he was the butt of jokes for late night comedians, but he knew it was a message that connected with struggling working families. The Democratic nominee should take a page from Trump: connect with voters’ concerns about housing scarcity, unaffordable tuition, and sky-high grocery and health care bills, but do Trump one better and actually articulate a clear plan to tackle these issues. The good news for Democratic voters is that if one reads their candidates’ policies online, affordability ranks high on their lists of priorities, and that’s a good thing. Democrats need to expand their appeal, and they have been, perhaps unfairly, accused of being out of touch with voters’ everyday lives.

To return to Canada, the Liberals won big not just because of Trump, although he certainly helped. Mark Carney played a huge role in their success. For an electorate that had tired of Trudeau, here was a new man with a fresh approach to the problems facing ordinary Canadians who also happened to bring a deep understanding of world economics. He seemed to be the right man for this historical moment. New Jersey Democrats face a historical moment too, one full of risk and possibility. But there is the exciting possibility that if they get this election right, they can not only continue to lead this state, but also begin charting a new course for a revitalized Democratic Party nationwide.